Catcher Rankings – 2021 Top 50

I will continuously update my rankings throughout the 2021 preseason based on updates to my projections, which themselves are based on transactions, injuries, and “best shape of his life” narratives (hopefully more of the first two). And also as I have time to do some research into individual players.

January 24th Update:

These are my hot of the presses rankings. I think I have weeded out all of the Excel errors, but at the same time, these are completely based on what the formulas spit out. And a little bit of intuition and eyeball combining the rankings–I generate a few different rankings based on minimum expectation, maximum expectation, and average expectation–to come up with a final positional ranking.

Rankings Table

For my own benefit to track how my rankings and draft ADP changes, I will be keeping a log of each update in the table.

January 24th Update – NFBC ADP Data based on drafts completed 1/1/21 – 1/24/21 (15-teams only)

Rank
Tier
Player
ADP
My Notes
1
1
J.T. Realmuto
 36.88
2
2
Salvado Perez
 78.94
3
3
Yasmani Grandal
 143.06
4
4
Travis D’Arnaud
 152.41
5
4
Willson Contreras
 132.94
6
4
Will Smith
 110.53
7
4
Gary Sanchez
 186.53 1/24: If playing with a more casual group, I would be wary waiting too long to pick up Sanchez; would expect him to go higher than NFBC ADP
8
4
Daulton Varsho
 151.41 1/24: Varsho picks up rankings due to expected stolen bases; consider shifting up/down based on category need
9
4
Christian Vazquez
 154.12 1/24: Floor may be highest of all tier 4, but due to chip-in SB
10
5
James McCann
 182.94
11
5
Buster Posey
 270.35 1/24: Based on around 470 plate appearances
12
5
Austin Nola
 171.47
13
5
Sean Murphy
 167.24
14
5
Mitch Garver
 222.59 1/24: Jeffers currently listed as starter; ranking based on ~370 PA which first glance seems too high
15
5
Yadier Molina
 295.65 1/24: ADP and ranking reflects retirement risk
16
5
Danny Jansen
 311.06 1/24: Alejandror Kirk in play; based on ~390 PA, I’m avoiding without more info
17
5
Yan Gomes
 338.12 1/24: Prefer to target Gomes over Jansen/Garver (risk averse)
18
5
Andrew Knizner
 505.47 1/24: Value; Molina concerns driving ADP?
19
5
Wilson Ramos
 385.12
20
5
Carson Kelly
 285 1/24: Need to look more; upside ranking has Kelly pegged low
21
6
Alejandro Kirk
 287.47 1/24: Jansen rates out better, but Kirk may get more starts; I’m avoiding
22
6
Ryan Jeffers
 328.65 1/24: Same with Kirk, Jeffers may get start, but have Garver higher if he gets PA
23
6
Elias Diaz
 460.24 1/24: Without clarity on Kirk/Jeffers, I’m happy targeting Diaz from this tier
24
6
Tucker Barnhart
 476.35 1/24: Without clarity on Kirk/Jeffers, I’m happy targeting Barnhart from this tier
25
7
Jorge Alfaro
 264.71 1/24: As ranking shows, not a fan at current ADP even with small SB contribution
26
7
Omar Narvaez
 370.35 1/24: I’ve bumped Narvaez up a bit compared to where the numbers put him; Willing to chase upside if 2020 was an aberration; may change once I can look into more
27
7
Kurt Suzuki
 444.88 1/24: Not as much upside, but has advantage of not tanking batting average from the catcher position
28
7
Adley Rutschman
 459 1/24: All dependent on plate appearances; I have pegged right around 350. Could be top 10 catcher when playing but want to make sure have confidence in other rostered catchers (or cheat code him with Severino/Sisco)
29
7
Luis Torrens
 415.24
30
7
Pedro Severino
 346.76 1/24: Be wary of time share with Sisco
31
7
Max Stassi
 387.82
32
7
Jacob Stallings
 382.88
33
7
Jose Trevino
 436.18
34
7
Mike Zunino
 524.88 1/24: Personal bias as I always bump Zunino down but keep him circled if I have batting average safety net and need HR
35
7
Chance Sisco
 474.59
36
7
Martin Maldando
 476.94
37
7
Tom Murphy
 328.35 1/24: ADP and my rankings not matching up (ADP much higher than seems warranted)
38
8
Kyle Higashioka
 476.65 1/24: Consider handcuffing if taking Sanchez
39
8
Victor Caratini
 443.47 1/24: Has a higher ceiling than some of above guys; dependent on PA and if can find healthy combo of AVG/HR
40
8
Andrew Knapp
 572.06 1/24: Has a higher ceiling than some of above guys; dependent on PA and if can find healthy combo of AVG/HR
41
8
Dom Nunez
 710.76 1/24: Looks like a good target for very late rounds; need to plan ahead and not be overly dependent on Nunez plate appearances
42
8
Francisco Mejia
 442.29
43
8
Roberto Perez
 478.24
44
8
Stephen Vogt
 700.24
45
8
Tyler Stephenson
 357.59 1/24: Only projecting 250 plate appearances; would quickly move up rankings if I find reasons to bump higher (e.g., Fangraphs has Stephenson as possibly backing up 1B which would give some additional playing time). Moving up to 325 PA would put closer to 30th ranked catcher
46
8
Austin Barnes
 532.82
47
8
Kevin Plawecki
 598
48
8
Jake Rogers
 718.88
49
8
Alex Jackson
 732.82
50
8
Austin Romine
 581.53

Articles to review:

Article Title Website Author Publish Date
State of the Position: Catcher FakeTeams Heath Capps 1/25/21