First Base Rankings – 2021 Top 50
I will continuously update my rankings throughout the 2021 preseason based on updates to my projections, which themselves are based on transactions, injuries, and “best shape of his life” narratives (hopefully more of the first two). And also as I have time to do some research into individual players.
January 28th Update:
I did a little more combing through than I did with my initial catcher rankings. Still, this is mostly projections based with me doing some “turning the knobs” adjustments to better fit my view on players. My “view” at the moment is mostly changing playing time (plate appearances) and adjusting projections to be more biased towards 2019 performance than 2020.
Rankings Table
For my own benefit to track how my rankings and draft ADP changes, I will be keeping a log of each update in the table.
January 28th Update – NFBC ADP Data based on drafts completed 1/1/21 – 1/27/21 (15-teams only)
| Rank |
Tier |
Player |
ADP |
My Notes |
| 1 |
1 |
Freddie Freeman |
14 |
|
| 2 |
1 |
Cody Bellinger |
16 |
|
| 3 |
2 |
Jose Abreu |
41 |
1/28: Can swap with Alonso…I prioritize the average buffer Abreu provides |
| 4 |
2 |
Pete Alonso |
58 |
1/28: See Abreu |
| 5 |
3 |
Luke Voit |
71 |
|
| 6 |
3 |
DJ LeMahieu |
36 |
1/28: DJLM is getting drafted not for his 1B eligibility |
| 7 |
4 |
Anthony Rizzo |
102 |
1/28: Close with Goldy; Swappable, but I’ll take the “known” this year |
| 8 |
4 |
Paul Goldschmidt |
103 |
1/28: Close with Rizzo (Goldy = average | Rizzo = HR, relative to each other) |
| 9 |
4 |
Matt Olson |
99 |
|
| 10 |
4 |
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
57 |
1/28: I know there is upside, but not without change in GB% |
| 11 |
4 |
Rhys Hoskins |
184 |
1/28: Raw projections, I rank Rhys higher than Guerrero but do like VG’s potential |
| 12 |
4 |
Max Muncy |
104 |
1/28: Projection – .265/23/78/92 | being drafted for other eligiblity |
| 13 |
4 |
Mike Moustakas |
129 |
1/28: multi-position eligibility |
| 14 |
5 |
Alec Bohm |
105 |
1/28: 3B eligiblity |
| 15 |
5 |
Eric Hosmer |
137 |
1/28: Projection – .265/23/78/92 |
| 16 |
5 |
Christian Walker |
197 |
|
| 17 |
5 |
Josh Bell |
160 |
1/28: Would not take much to move up rankings; Projection: .250/25/82/92 |
| 18 |
5 |
Miguel Sano |
197 |
1/28: Ranking depends on where you want to peg his K% and AVG…upside is top 12, downside is still top 20 |
| 19 |
6 |
Yulieski Gurriel |
247 |
1/28: putting at .283/18 HR |
| 20 |
6 |
Rowdy Tellez |
228 |
|
| 21 |
7 |
Ryan Mountcastle |
163 |
|
| 22 |
7 |
Hunter Dozier |
238 |
1/28: Ranked here due to projected 3B eligibility; push lower if that changes during spring training |
| 23 |
7 |
Jared Walsh |
190 |
1/28: Know others are hyping, need to figure out why |
| 24 |
7 |
Jeimer Candelario |
242 |
|
| 25 |
8 |
Bobby Dalbec |
311 |
|
| 26 |
8 |
Jesus Aguilar |
323 |
|
| 27 |
8 |
Joey Votto |
333 |
1/28: Seems too high based on others rankings |
| 28 |
8 |
Ryan McMahon |
258 |
|
| 29 |
8 |
Colin Moran |
404 |
|
| 30 |
8 |
Carlos Santana |
273 |
|
| 31 |
8 |
Tommy La Stella |
310 |
|
| 32 |
8 |
Nate Lowe |
304 |
|
| 33 |
8 |
C.J. Cron |
298 |
1/28: Dependent on job |
| 34 |
8 |
Renato Nunez |
397 |
1/28: Dependent on Nunez getting a job and ~450 PA |
| 35 |
8 |
Evan White |
353 |
|
| 36 |
9 |
Jake Cronenworth |
172 |
1/28: I know others have higher, but I’m not seeing the path to the upside (even accounting for multi-position) |
| 37 |
9 |
Brandon Belt |
338 |
|
| 38 |
9 |
Garrett Cooper |
347 |
1/28: This could be personal bias from having less-than-positive experience in prior years |
| 39 |
9 |
Wilmer Flores |
323 |
1/28: This feels low on Flores |
| 40 |
9 |
Josh Fuentes |
468 |
|
| 41 |
9 |
Ji-Man Choi |
507 |
|
| 42 |
9 |
Michael Chavis |
387 |
|
| 43 |
10 |
Mitch Moreland |
542 |
1/28: I could see Moreland as a 2nd division starter and performing well enough to rank higher |
| 44 |
10 |
Marwin Gonzalez |
483 |
|
| 45 |
10 |
Travis Shaw |
561 |
|
| 46 |
10 |
Asdrubal Cabrera |
520 |
|
| 47 |
10 |
Albert Pujols |
657 |
|
| 48 |
10 |
Danny Santana |
586 |
|
| 49 |
10 |
Andrew Vaughn |
299 |
1/28: Have hard time putting him higher for 2021 given unknowns (call up, playing time, performance) |
| 50 |
10 |
Pavin Smith |
567 |
1/28: Wanted to get him on the top 50 just to have on radar |
Articles to review: